Drivers and sensitivities
01 / DRIVERS- Population growth and dietary change in emerging markets
- Yield gaps that technology and inputs can narrow
- Food security policy and import substitution
- Cold chain and post-harvest loss reduction
- Weather and climate variability
- Grain, oilseed and fertiliser prices
- Currency, since many crops are priced in US dollars
- Energy and freight costs
Editorial summary. Qualitative drivers are general industry context written by Invest Global, last reviewed 2026-10-08. They are not forecasts. Figures elsewhere on this page are sourced and dated.
Key risks
02 / RISKS- Climate and weather shocks
- Export bans and price controls during shortages
- Land tenure uncertainty
- Smallholder fragmentation and thin infrastructure
- Disease and pest outbreaks
Investing in frontier and emerging markets carries significant risk, including total loss. This list is illustrative and not exhaustive.
Value chain
03 / STAGES- Inputs: seed, fertiliser, crop protection
- Primary production
- Storage, trading and logistics
- Processing and packaging
- Distribution and retail
Top exposed countries
04 / 187 SCOREDRanked by exposure score, a weighted percentile of sourced indicators. Select Sources on any row to see each input, its period, source and as-of date.
| # | Country | Score | Band | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 91 | High | Agriculture is 42.9% of GDP; 24.0% of land is arable (2022, 2024). | |
| 02 | 90 | High | Agriculture is 40.6% of GDP; food is 68.5% of merchandise exports (2018, 2025). | |
| 03 | 87 | High | Agriculture is 23.8% of GDP; food is 90.7% of merchandise exports (2024, 2025). | |
| 04 | 87 | High | Agriculture is 30.0% of GDP; food is 93.3% of merchandise exports (2025). Economy-wide FDI restrictiveness (OECD, 0 open to 1 closed): | |
| 05 | 86 | High | Agriculture is 34.3% of GDP; food is 63.9% of merchandise exports (2019, 2024). | |
| 06 | 86 | High | Agriculture is 32.8% of GDP; food is 80.4% of merchandise exports (2023, 2025). | |
| 07 | 86 | High | Agriculture is 29.5% of GDP; food is 45.6% of merchandise exports (2018, 2025). | |
| 08 | 85 | High | Agriculture is 22.9% of GDP; food is 39.7% of merchandise exports (2024, 2025). | |
| 09 | 85 | High | Agriculture is 29.4% of GDP; food is 50.6% of merchandise exports (2018, 2025). | |
| 10 | 83 | High | Agriculture is 34.3% of GDP; food is 46.0% of merchandise exports (2023, 2025). Economy-wide FDI restrictiveness (OECD, 0 open to 1 closed): | |
| 11 | 82 | High | Agriculture is 20.3% of GDP; food is 34.4% of merchandise exports (2025). | |
| 12 | 81 | High | Agriculture is 36.3% of GDP; cereal yield is 827 kg per hectare (2024, 2025). |
Exposure scores describe how large and relevant a sector is in a country's economy and opportunity set relative to other countries. They are not a measure of attractiveness, expected return or risk. Educational content only, not investment advice.
Largest markets by scale
05 / 190 RANKEDExposure scores show relative weight. This ranking shows absolute size on one sourced measure: agriculture value added. World Bank agriculture, forestry and fishing share of GDP times GDP of the same year.
| # | Country | Agriculture value added | Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 2025 | ||
| 02 | 2025 | ||
| 03 | 2021 | ||
| 04 | 2025 | ||
| 05 | 2025 | ||
| 06 | 2025 | ||
| 07 | 2025 | ||
| 08 | 2025 | ||
| 09 | 2025 | ||
| 10 | 2025 | ||
| 11 | 2025 | ||
| 12 | 2025 |
Derived from the cited sources as described above. A larger economy ranks higher on absolute measures even when the sector is a smaller share of its output.
Top listed companies
06 / PLAYERSLargest listed companies tagged to this sector in the Invest Global capital markets dataset, ranked by market capitalisation in US dollars. Coverage is the markets in that dataset, so it is not a global census.
| # | Company | Country | Market cap | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Nestlé NESN | Invest Global sector tag | ||
| 02 | Jerónimo Martins JMT | Invest Global sector tag | ||
| 03 | Lotus Bakeries LOTB | Invest Global sector tag | ||
| 04 | BUA Foods PLC BUAFOODS | Industry: Sugar And Confectionery Products | ||
| 05 | Fonterra FCG | Invest Global sector tag | ||
| 06 | Oman India Fertiliser Company SAOG OMIF | Invest Global sector tag | ||
| 07 | Fauji Fertilizer Company FFC | Invest Global sector tag | ||
| 08 | Misr Fertilizer Production Company MFPC | Industry: Agricultural Chemicals | ||
| 09 | Poulina Group Holding S.A. PGH | Industry: Poultry Slaughtering and Processing | ||
| 10 | Illovo Sugar (Malawi) plc ILLOVO | Industry: Sugar And Confectionery Products | ||
| 11 | Brim hf. BRIM | Invest Global sector tag | ||
| 12 | Zambia Sugar Plc ZSUG | Industry: Sugar And Confectionery Products | ||
| 13 | Délice Holding SA DH | Industry: Dairy Products | ||
| 14 | AB Akola Group AKO1L | Industry: Agricultural Production Crops | ||
| 15 | Zambia Forestry and Forest Industries Corporation Plc ZFCO | Industry: Forestry |
Not recommendations. A list of the largest companies is not a list of suggested investments. Sector tags marked Invest Global are an editorial classification of each company's main business. Market capitalisation is a snapshot, not a live quote.
Regulatory considerations
07 / REGULATION- Foreign land ownership limits are common
- Export licensing and price intervention
- Food safety and phytosanitary standards for exporters
- Input subsidy regimes
The OECD FDI Regulatory Restrictiveness Index scores 105 economies from 0 (open) to 1 (closed). The median is , with a range of 0.00 to 0.74. The table above notes the score under each top market where it is covered. Sector-specific restrictions vary and are set out in the OECD regulatory database.
Regulatory summaries are general and change often. Confirm current rules with local counsel. Not legal advice.
Typical entry routes
08 / ACCESS- Listed agribusiness and food processors
- Agriculture sector funds
- Agri-commodity exposure through regulated products
- Private agribusiness and farmland funds for qualified investors
- VanEck Agribusiness ETFVanEck ETF Trust
- iShares MSCI Agriculture Producers ETFiShares, Inc.
Examples, not recommendations. Each fund is confirmed in the SEC series and class file. These are US-listed funds whose holdings are mostly developed-market issuers; check each prospectus for current holdings, fees and domicile. No prices, yields or fees are shown because none are verified here.
Sourced charts
09 / DATA| Benchmark | Latest price | Month |
|---|---|---|
| Wheat, US HRW | 2026-09 | |
| Maize | 2026-09 | |
| Rice, Thai 5% | 2026-09 | |
| Soybeans | 2026-09 | |
| Palm oil | 2026-09 | |
| Sugar, world | 2026-09 | |
| Coffee, Arabica | 2026-09 | |
| Cocoa | 2026-09 | |
| Cotton, A Index | 2026-09 | |
| Urea | 2026-09 | |
| DAP | 2026-09 | |
| Potassium chloride | 2026-09 |
Charts show historical data from the cited sources. Past levels do not indicate future results. Commodity series are World Bank nominal US dollar monthly benchmarks.
Method and sources
10 / FORMULAEach score is a weighted average of percentile ranks. For every indicator, a country's latest observation (not older than 2014) is ranked against all other countries with data (mid-rank percentile, 0 to 1). Where a lower raw value signals more headroom (for example electricity access), the rank is inverted. The weighted average of the available percentiles is scaled to 0 to 100. A cell is published only if indicators holding at least 60 percent of the weight are available; otherwise the country is omitted for that sector.
| Indicator | Weight | Direction | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture value added | 40% | Scale (higher raw value scores higher) | World Bank, World Development Indicators |
| Food exports | 20% | Scale (higher raw value scores higher) | World Bank, World Development Indicators |
| Agricultural raw materials exports | 15% | Scale (higher raw value scores higher) | World Bank, World Development Indicators |
| Arable land | 15% | Scale (higher raw value scores higher) | World Bank, World Development Indicators |
| Cereal yield | 10% | Headroom (lower raw value scores higher) | World Bank, World Development Indicators |
The score describes how large and relevant a sector is in a country's economy and opportunity set, relative to other countries. It is not a measure of attractiveness, return or risk, and it is not investment advice.
- World Bank, World Development Indicators CC BY 4.0
- U.S. SEC, Investment Company Series and Class Information U.S. Government work, public domain
- companiesmarketcap.com (via the Invest Global capital markets dataset) Third-party data carried over from the existing Invest Global capital markets dataset; reuse licence to be confirmed
- stockanalysis.com exchange listings, converted to USD at floatrates.com rates (via the Invest Global capital markets dataset) Third-party data carried over from the existing Invest Global capital markets dataset; reuse licence to be confirmed
- OECD FDI Regulatory Restrictiveness Index CC BY 4.0 (OECD content published from 1 July 2024)
- World Bank, Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet) CC BY 4.0
Data version 2026-10-09. Every datapoint carries its source and as-of date; hover or tap a dotted value to see them.