Drivers and sensitivities
01 / DRIVERS- Industrial policy in importing economies seeking supply diversification
- Offtake and price-floor arrangements with strategic buyers
- Battery chemistry shifts that change mineral demand mix
- Processing capacity built outside the dominant refiner
- Electric vehicle and storage demand growth
- Price swings that follow supply additions
- Trade policy and export controls
- Cost of capital for processing capacity
Editorial summary. Qualitative drivers are general industry context written by Invest Global, last reviewed 2026-10-08. They are not forecasts. Figures elsewhere on this page are sourced and dated.
Key risks
02 / RISKS- Very high supply concentration in a few countries and processors
- Export controls, quotas and licensing changes
- Price collapses after rapid supply growth
- Artisanal mining, traceability and governance concerns
- Technology substitution
Investing in frontier and emerging markets carries significant risk, including total loss. This list is illustrative and not exhaustive.
Value chain
03 / STAGES- Exploration and resource definition
- Mining and concentration
- Chemical processing and refining
- Precursor and component manufacturing
- End-use: batteries, magnets, electronics
Top exposed countries
04 / 197 SCOREDRanked by exposure score, a weighted percentile of sourced indicators. Select Sources on any row to see each input, its period, source and as-of date.
| # | Country | Score | Band | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 |  Australia | 97 | High | It holds 77.1 points of combined world mine output across tracked critical minerals; it holds 284.3 points of combined world reserves across tracked critical minerals (2024). Economy-wide FDI restrictiveness (OECD, 0 open to 1 closed): |
| 02 |  Brazil | 96 | High | It holds 124.3 points of combined world mine output across tracked critical minerals; it produces 2 percent or more of world supply in 7 tracked critical minerals (2024). Economy-wide FDI restrictiveness (OECD, 0 open to 1 closed): |
| 03 |  Democratic Republic of the Congo | 96 | High | It holds 84.5 points of combined world mine output across tracked critical minerals; it holds 50.0 points of combined world reserves across tracked critical minerals (2024). Economy-wide FDI restrictiveness (OECD, 0 open to 1 closed): |
| 04 |  Russia | 96 | High | It holds 134.9 points of combined world mine output across tracked critical minerals; it produces 2 percent or more of world supply in 8 tracked critical minerals (2024). Economy-wide FDI restrictiveness (OECD, 0 open to 1 closed): |
| 05 |  Chile | 95 | High | It holds 28.0 points of combined world mine output across tracked critical minerals; it holds 30.3 points of combined world reserves across tracked critical minerals (2024). Economy-wide FDI restrictiveness (OECD, 0 open to 1 closed): |
| 06 |  Peru | 95 | High | It holds 35.5 points of combined world mine output across tracked critical minerals; it holds 25.5 points of combined world reserves across tracked critical minerals (2024). Economy-wide FDI restrictiveness (OECD, 0 open to 1 closed): |
| 07 |  South Africa | 95 | High | It holds 131.1 points of combined world mine output across tracked critical minerals; it holds 50.2 points of combined world reserves across tracked critical minerals (2024). Economy-wide FDI restrictiveness (OECD, 0 open to 1 closed): |
| 08 |  China | 94 | High | It holds 450.4 points of combined world mine output across tracked critical minerals; it produces 2 percent or more of world supply in 12 tracked critical minerals (2024). Economy-wide FDI restrictiveness (OECD, 0 open to 1 closed): |
| 09 |  Bolivia | 93 | High | It holds 23.9 points of combined world mine output across tracked critical minerals; it produces 2 percent or more of world supply in 5 tracked critical minerals (2024). |
| 10 |  Canada | 92 | High | It holds 53.7 points of combined world mine output across tracked critical minerals; it produces 2 percent or more of world supply in 5 tracked critical minerals (2024). Economy-wide FDI restrictiveness (OECD, 0 open to 1 closed): |
| 11 |  Kazakhstan | 92 | High | It holds 19.5 points of combined world mine output across tracked critical minerals; it produces 2 percent or more of world supply in 3 tracked critical minerals (2024). Economy-wide FDI restrictiveness (OECD, 0 open to 1 closed): |
| 12 |  India | 91 | High | It holds 22.7 points of combined world mine output across tracked critical minerals; it produces 2 percent or more of world supply in 4 tracked critical minerals (2024). Economy-wide FDI restrictiveness (OECD, 0 open to 1 closed): |
Exposure scores describe how large and relevant a sector is in a country's economy and opportunity set relative to other countries. They are not a measure of attractiveness, expected return or risk. Educational content only, not investment advice.
Largest markets by scale
05 / 54 RANKEDExposure scores show relative weight. This ranking shows absolute size on one sourced measure: combined world output share across tracked critical minerals. Sum of the country's percent shares of 2024 world mine production across the tracked USGS critical minerals.
| # | Country | Combined world output share across tracked critical minerals | Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | China | 2024 | |
| 02 | Russia | 2024 | |
| 03 | South Africa | 2024 | |
| 04 | Brazil | 2024 | |
| 05 |  Indonesia | 2024 | |
| 06 | Democratic Republic of the Congo | 2024 | |
| 07 | Australia | 2024 | |
| 08 | Canada | 2024 | |
| 09 | Peru | 2024 | |
| 10 |  Mexico | 2024 | |
| 11 |  United States of America | 2024 | |
| 12 | Chile | 2024 |
Derived from the cited sources as described above. A larger economy ranks higher on absolute measures even when the sector is a smaller share of its output.
Top listed companies
06 / PLAYERSLargest listed companies tagged to this sector in the Invest Global capital markets dataset, ranked by market capitalisation in US dollars. Coverage is the markets in that dataset, so it is not a global census.
| # | Company | Country | Market cap | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Sociedad Química y Minera SQM-B | Chile | Invest Global sector tag |
Not recommendations. A list of the largest companies is not a list of suggested investments. Sector tags marked Invest Global are an editorial classification of each company's main business. Market capitalisation is a snapshot, not a live quote.
Regulatory considerations
07 / REGULATION- Critical mineral lists and strategic reserve policies
- Local beneficiation and export ban policies
- Due diligence and traceability rules in destination markets
- Environmental and community consent requirements
The OECD FDI Regulatory Restrictiveness Index scores 105 economies from 0 (open) to 1 (closed). The median is , with a range of 0.00 to 0.74. The table above notes the score under each top market where it is covered. Sector-specific restrictions vary and are set out in the OECD regulatory database.
Regulatory summaries are general and change often. Confirm current rules with local counsel. Not legal advice.
Typical entry routes
08 / ACCESS- Thematic funds focused on lithium, rare earths or battery metals
- Listed developers and processors
- Offtake-linked project finance for qualified investors
- Government-backed co-investment programmes
- Global X Copper Miners ETFGlobal X Funds
- VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETFVanEck ETF Trust
- Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETFGlobal X Funds
- Global X Uranium ETFGlobal X Funds
Examples, not recommendations. Each fund is confirmed in the SEC series and class file. These are US-listed funds whose holdings are mostly developed-market issuers; check each prospectus for current holdings, fees and domicile. No prices, yields or fees are shown because none are verified here.
Sourced charts
09 / DATA| Benchmark | Latest price | Month |
|---|---|---|
| Copper | 2026-09 | |
| Nickel | 2026-09 | |
| Tin | 2026-09 | |
| Platinum | 2026-09 |
Charts show historical data from the cited sources. Past levels do not indicate future results. Commodity series are World Bank nominal US dollar monthly benchmarks.
Method and sources
10 / FORMULAEach score is a weighted average of percentile ranks. For every indicator, a country's latest observation (not older than 2014) is ranked against all other countries with data (mid-rank percentile, 0 to 1). Where a lower raw value signals more headroom (for example electricity access), the rank is inverted. The weighted average of the available percentiles is scaled to 0 to 100. A cell is published only if indicators holding at least 60 percent of the weight are available; otherwise the country is omitted for that sector.
| Indicator | Weight | Direction | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Combined world mine output share across tracked critical minerals (sum of percent shares) | 30% | Scale (higher raw value scores higher) | U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 |
| Tracked critical minerals where the country produces 2 percent or more of world output | 25% | Scale (higher raw value scores higher) | U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 |
| Combined world reserve share across tracked critical minerals (sum of percent shares) | 25% | Scale (higher raw value scores higher) | U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 |
| Mineral rents | 20% | Scale (higher raw value scores higher) | World Bank, World Development Indicators |
The score describes how large and relevant a sector is in a country's economy and opportunity set, relative to other countries. It is not a measure of attractiveness, return or risk, and it is not investment advice.
- U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 U.S. Government work, public domain
- U.S. SEC, Investment Company Series and Class Information U.S. Government work, public domain
- companiesmarketcap.com (via the Invest Global capital markets dataset) Third-party data carried over from the existing Invest Global capital markets dataset; reuse licence to be confirmed
- OECD FDI Regulatory Restrictiveness Index CC BY 4.0 (OECD content published from 1 July 2024)
- World Bank, Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet) CC BY 4.0
- World Bank, World Development Indicators CC BY 4.0
Data version 2026-10-09. Every datapoint carries its source and as-of date; hover or tap a dotted value to see them.